- Geopolitics Weekly
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- 📰 Pentagon plans Cuba
📰 Pentagon plans Cuba
and Iran re-closes Strait
Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
April 19, 2026
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Hungary's opposition ousted Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years, with Péter Magyar's Tisza party winning a supermajority able to reverse constitutional changes and unlock EU funds.
This comes as the Pentagon escalates Cuba contingency planning, Italy suspends its defence agreement with Israel, the UK shelves Chagos Islands legislation after Trump's withdrawal, and Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz citing a U.S. blockade.
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Top 5 Stories
1️⃣ 🇭🇺 Hungarian opposition ousts Orbán after 16 years: Péter Magyar's Tisza party won 138 of 199 seats, ending Orbán's grip and securing a super-majority to reverse constitutional changes and unlock EU funds. Record 80% youth turnout drove the result, prompting EU leaders to welcome Hungary's pro-European realignment, though analysts cautioned institutional dismantling would proceed slowly.
2️⃣ 🇺🇸🇨🇺 Pentagon ramps up Cuba military planning: According to USA TODAY, the Pentagon is quietly escalating contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba if Trump orders intervention. Swift military victory would likely prove far more difficult politically, experts warn, as the escalation follows January tensions over U.S. oil shipment cuts to the island.
3️⃣ 🇨🇳🇪🇸 Xi warns Spain against global "law of the jungle": Chinese President Xi Jinping and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez pledged to safeguard multilateralism amid the Iran war, with Xi opposing "the world's retrogression to the law of the jungle." Sánchez, who closed Spanish airspace to U.S. planes in the Iran conflict, identified China as the only global player capable of resolving wars in Iran and Ukraine, while pursuing 19 bilateral agreements to reduce Spain's trade deficit with Beijing.
4️⃣ 🇮🇹🇮🇱 Italy suspends defence agreement with Israel: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government froze automatic renewal of a defence cooperation deal involving military equipment and technology research. The suspension follows recent tensions including Italian accusations that Israeli forces fired warning shots at Italian peacekeepers in Lebanon, prompting Italy to summon Israel's ambassador in protest.
5️⃣ 🇮🇱🇸🇴 Israel appoints first ambassador to Somaliland: Israel appointed Michael Lotem as its first ambassador to the breakaway Somaliland region, deepening ties established when Israel became the first country to recognize it in December. The move drew condemnation from Somalia's government as a sovereignty breach and sparked concern among regional actors, with the Iran-backed Houthis declaring an Israeli presence in Somaliland a legitimate target.
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Major Story
🇮🇷 Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again
Following reports of ships being targeted in the waterway on Saturday, Iran announced it was re-closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, warning that vessels approaching the passage would face military action. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps attributed the decision to the US blockade of Iranian ports, reversing a temporary reopening announced the previous day. President Trump responded that Iran cannot use threats over the shipping channel to coerce the US, while noting that negotiations between the two countries are progressing. The closure extends Iran's effective control of the strait for nearly two months, with roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas typically transiting the chokepoint.
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Other News
1️⃣ 🇬🇧🇲🇺 Chagos Islands treaty stalled by US withdrawal: The UK shelved legislation to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius after the Trump administration withdrew support for the agreement, which required updating a 1966 UK-US defence pact covering Diego Garcia. A Foreign Office minister said the treaty had become impossible to ratify, disappointing Chagossians seeking resettlement, and reflected deteriorating US-UK relations over Britain's Iran war stance.
2️⃣ 🇭🇺🇺🇦 Magyar signals end to Hungary's Ukraine loan veto: Incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar said Hungary will drop its opposition to the EU's €90 billion loan to Ukraine, which Orbán had blocked for four months over Russian pipeline repairs, ending a standoff that threatened Kyiv's finances by May. However, Magyar stated Hungary itself will not contribute to the funding, citing the country's budget deficit that has tripled since 2010.
3️⃣ 🇨🇳🇹🇼 China announces goodwill measures toward Taiwan: Following a landmark meeting between President Xi Jinping and Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, China announced measures to facilitate sales of Taiwan's agricultural products, promote investment, and resume outbound travel to the island. The moves aim to strengthen ties with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang party while maintaining pressure on the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which Beijing refuses to engage with directly, contributing to a continued freeze in formal cross-strait communication.
4️⃣ 🇫🇷🇱🇧 French soldier killed in Lebanon attack: A French peacekeeper serving with UNIFIL was killed and three others wounded in an attack in southern Lebanon that officials attributed to Hezbollah, which denied involvement. The incident occurred days after Israel and Lebanon announced a 10-day ceasefire, raising questions about the fragile truce's viability amid ongoing tensions between Israeli forces and the Iran-aligned armed group.
5️⃣ 🇬🇧🇺🇸 Starmer faces resignation pressure over ambassador vetting: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer resisted calls to resign after revelations that Peter Mandelson, his pick for U.S. ambassador, was appointed despite failing security checks. Starmer claimed ignorance of the Foreign Office's override of security officials' recommendation, prompting opposition politicians to express disbelief.
