Hello, 

Russia is signalling openness to peace talks as Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil infrastructure trigger fuel shortages and send stocks tumbling to three-year lows. 

Elsewhere, escalating exchanges between the US and Iran are putting the current interim agreement under serious strain. 

Read more below ⤵️

1️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Escalating US-Iran Strikes Threaten Interim Peace Agreement: Iran launched drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait following new US strikes on Iranian military facilities in southern Iran, with the IRGC warning US bases in the region would "experience hell in coming days." Iran's FM Araghchi called for a Gulf security framework excluding the US as the 60-day window for a final agreement continues to narrow.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 Starmer Quits as Labour Leader: Keir Starmer resigned as UK Prime Minister and Labour leader on Monday, becoming the shortest-serving Labour PM in history. Andy Burnham, who recently won a by-election to return to parliament, is the frontrunner to succeed him with nominations opening on July 9.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺🇱🇻🇵🇱 Russia Preparing Possible 'Provocation' in Baltic States or Poland, Sources Say: Latvian intelligence and a second NATO member state have warned that Russia is preparing potential hybrid attacks, including missiles or drones, against the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO cohesion. Poland's PM Donald Tusk described the situation as "very unstable," warning of possible escalation in the coming weeks.

4️⃣ 🇬🇧🇦🇪🇸🇩 UK Failed to Stop el-Fasher Massacre Because It Feared the UAE, MPs Told: Human rights investigator Nathaniel Raymond told parliament the UK repeatedly ignored advance warnings about the RSF's assault on el-Fasher due to "political capture" by the UAE, prioritising its economic and diplomatic relationship with Abu Dhabi. Despite holding the UN Security Council penholder role for Sudan, the UK declined to impose consequences on the UAE even as intelligence confirmed the scale of the imminent attack.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian Troop Build-up Threatens City Seen as Key to Seizing Ukraine's Donbas: Russian forces have infiltrated the strategic city of Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine and are attempting to surround it, with Ukrainian soldiers telling the BBC the entire city is now effectively a "grey zone." Frontline monitoring project DeepState warns the city's fall is "a matter of time," which would open a path toward Ukraine's last remaining Donbas strongholds of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

SpaceX just filed for an IPO valued at up to $1.75 trillion. When that much capital becomes liquid all at once, where it goes next is the big question.

Meanwhile, spring art auctions in NY cleared $2.5 billion, with 15+ new artist records.

Prized, physical assets with fixed and scarce supply. When the ultra-wealthy get liquid, it’s one of the markets they reach for to diversify.

Masterworks lets you into that art market without needing the nine figures. Its members invest in shares of blue-chip artwork by artists like Banksy, Basquiat and Warhol.

The track record to-date?

Skip the waitlist to join Masterworks.

^{*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.}

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin signals readiness for peace talks amid fuel crisis

Vladimir Putin has stated Russia is willing to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine, citing the 2022 Istanbul agreements as the basis for any settlement. 

He made no indication of softening Russia's demand that Ukraine cede the remaining Donbas territory it holds. 

The statement came as Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have doubled since the start of 2026, with last week's attack on a Moscow refinery among the largest of its kind since the war began.

Fuel shortages have since spread across multiple Russian regions, with restrictions on sales, rising prices, and long queues at filling stations, while the rouble weakened and stocks fell to a three-year low. 

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed Russia is weighing a diesel export ban and tax legislation changes to stabilise the domestic fuel market, with the developments also coinciding with reports of a potential Russian summer offensive targeting four key Donbas cities.

Markets move. Headlines catastrophise. But somewhere inside the noise is the story that matters — the opportunity, not the fear. 

The Daily Upside was built by Wall Street insiders to find it — global business and finance, reported without the alarm.

Join 1M readers →

1️⃣ 🇨🇳🇺🇸 China Hits Back at US Sanctions on Tech Giants, Restricting Its Exports to American Defence Firms: China sanctioned 10 US military-linked companies and blocked government purchases from 46 American defence firms including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and General Dynamics, in retaliation for Washington labelling Alibaba and Baidu as military companies. The measures bar Chinese exports of dual-use goods to the sanctioned firms and prohibit third-country transfers of Chinese technology to the affected companies.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 Israel Deployed Troops to Somaliland After Recognition, Source Says: A senior Somali official says Israel deployed around 50 soldiers to Somaliland following its December recognition of the breakaway state, with troops reportedly chosen for their African heritage. Israeli Defence Minister Katz confirmed long-running covert security cooperation with Somaliland, while reports suggest the territory may be providing a staging site for Israeli long-range operations.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳🇹🇼 China's Newest Aircraft Carrier Sails Through the Taiwan Strait: China's Fujian carrier, the world's largest nonnuclear-powered warship, transited the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, a day after Taiwan launched a five-day military exercise simulating a Chinese invasion response. The Fujian was commissioned in November 2025 and is considered more advanced than China's other two carriers, with military activity near Taiwan now occurring at near-daily frequency.

Want daily updates on the world of geopolitics as well as weekly?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Daily here ⤵️