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This week, the UN's World Food Programme said the developing El Niño is likely to push about 50 million more people into acute hunger before the end of next year.

It comes as central Europe edges towards an energy emergency with the Danube at a record low, and as three people familiar with the data say the US has used virtually all of its long-range missiles in the Iran war.

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1️⃣ 🇫🇷🇱🇻 French jet downs a drone over Latvia in Baltic first: Allied Air Command said the engagement was the first use of the MICA missile by the French Air and Space Force in the Baltic region, disclosed as France ended its NATO Baltic Air Policing deployment at Šiauliai after four months, more than 540 flying hours and almost 40 Alpha scrambles. Using an air-to-air missile against a drone reflects a wider problem for European air forces, which are spending high-value weapons on far cheaper targets.

2️⃣ 🇪🇸🇲🇦 Madrid was warned about Ceuta before the crossing, report says: Citing military and civilian intelligence sources, The Objective reported that services had warned King Mohammed VI was likely to make a "gesture of magnanimity" at the border around Morocco's Throne Day, and that nearly 1,000 people swimming across over ten days was read as a test. The Interior Ministry insisted cooperation with Morocco was "exemplary, loyal and permanent", and the government denied it had advance warning.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧🇫🇷 MI6 rated Europe's strongest foreign intelligence service: The service scored 251 points in a review by 60 professionals from 25 countries run by the French magazine L'Express, ahead of France's DGSE on 169, with the Netherlands, Ukraine and Germany completing the top five and Slovakia rated worst. A former head of the DGSE said the British "have the ability to play the long game, investing in sources over a 10-year horizon", and "a taste for dirty tricks".

4️⃣ 🇭🇺🇷🇴 Record-low Danube pushes central Europe towards an energy emergency: Prime Minister Peter Magyar said Hungary faces "the most critical five days ahead" as the two-gigawatt Paks plant, which supplies about half the country's electricity, runs at just over 10% of capacity before a shutdown. The Danube in Budapest fell to around 10cm, against a previous record low of 33cm in 2018, while Romania declared a state of alert in its energy sector and Serbia's main hydroelectric plant dropped to 20% capacity.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump vows to hunt down leakers over munitions reports: The president wrote on Truth Social that "the 'leakers' of these treasonous statements are being hunted down" and that long-term jail sentences would be sought. He also defended Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after a Washington Post report that he confronted him at Camp David over being misled on shortages, calling the story "fake" and "treasonous".

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🌍 UN warns El Niño will deepen hunger

Around 50 million people are likely to be pushed into acute hunger before the end of next year by the rapidly developing El Niño, the UN's World Food Programme warned, adding more than a fifth to the 225 million people in 45 countries already in acute food insecurity.

Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are likely to be worst affected, while south and south-east Asia can expect less rainfall than usual.

This year's system is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, and the WFP said the worst of it will arrive well after the weather does.

"The biggest food security impact, in southern Africa, will be during the 2027 to 2028 lean season," said Richard Choularton, the agency's director of climate and resilience, who added that the response has been hampered by data collection cut for lack of funding.

Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP's director of food security, said prices are already under upward pressure from the war in the Middle East, and warned that "it's very important to avoid a situation where large countries stop food exports".

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1️⃣ 🇪🇹🇸🇩 Tigray refugees flee into Sudan as fighting breaks a peace deal: Weekend clashes involving heavy artillery and drones broke a peace deal signed three years ago, though a TPLF member said by Sunday afternoon that "there is a de-escalation", with the rebels accusing the federal army of launching a large-scale infantry offensive. Al Jazeera's correspondent in Ad-Damazin said drone or artillery fire caused explosions in several large refugee camps on the border, with casualty numbers unavailable.

2️⃣ 🇮🇹🇷🇺 Italian navy boards a Russian shadow fleet tanker: The Thaon di Revel intercepted the Toa Payoh, an EU-sanctioned tanker sailing under a declared Cameroonian flag, west of Pantelleria under the bloc's Operation IRINI, with support from a Greek vessel and a Polish patrol aircraft. The defence ministry said the master initially did not cooperate, so Italian personnel reached the vessel by helicopter and carried out nationality checks under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

3️⃣ 🇩🇰🇬🇱 Denmark's extended conscription begins: The recruits face five months of basic training and six months of operational service under a system extended from four months and opened to women for the first time, with annual conscript numbers set to reach 7,500 by 2033. Denmark will send conscripts to Greenland for the first time later this month, a deployment with added weight given President Trump's repeated attempts to annex the territory.

4️⃣ 🇧🇷🇺🇸 US pulls Brazilian ambassador's visa in escalating row: A State Department official said the move would be reversed if Brasília approves President Trump's nominee for ambassador, Daniel Perez, but that Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti was not being declared persona non grata. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's office called it "part of a deliberate escalation of hostile measures against Brazil, motivated by ideological reasons", months before October's election.

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